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ASIM BORAL

SONGSOPTOK THE WRITERS BLOG | 5/15/2015 |




SAVE FARMERS SAVE ANNYODATA 

 

It seems Banking growth in terms of both credit and deposit  last 18 years are abysmally slowest according to RBI data released on 3 rd April 2015 .What it was 12 % in credit and 20.1 % in deposit in 1995 -96 is now same 12.6 % in credit and 12.6 % in deposit ( deposit reduced to almost 48 % ) .Last one year credit grows to just  Rs 75 L cr ( 12 %) where as deposit grows to Rs 91 L cr ( 9 %) India 's GDP at the moment is 1 .6 trillion dollar All these attributed to Banking system remains with just 20 % people who lives in 400 towns and cities of India and never grows with the growth of Industrial and services sectors .Today Corporate borrowing is very slow -NPA s to Banking system increasing thus putting pressure to further credit growth which is the main contributor of banking growths .The three main contributors of credit growth like  Consumers durables (16.9 %)-Vehicles loans ( 14.7%) and housing loan(14.5 % ) are functioning below par and even big Oil Marketing Companies are not borrowing funds as they should contribute more in credit growth .We have seen in 2008 during world recession how some of the developed economy countries suffered due to no regulations or absence of regulatory authority . Expenditure in economy is one of the great contributor for running successful economy which is absent or subdued at the moment .We know with out expenditure Economy cannot grow fast .Though Indian economy survived 2008 great world recession but ideally the way Indian economy should go but never happened due to the same lowest credit growth .I am sure if Indian economy to grow at 10 to 16 % then credit offtake must improve and for that Banking system has to spread beyond 20 % people they are exposed at the moment and must spread their wings to Rural India and must be spread in fastest space otherwise Great recession in India is coming sure due to property bubbles where India has created more than Rs 10 lakh cr dead money due to less takers on high interest from Banks last 6 years . Today 70 % space in property market remain unsold --Organized retails business what it had some 5550 Malls in 2002 has reduced to 2395 in 2014. According to RBI sales of 2291 big medium  and small companies shows declining except IT sectors .There are huge exposure of Banks in Property and realty sectors as high as 85 % -Higher growth and profits in this sectors are reducing day by day particularly  in manufacturing sectors -Small and medium manufacturing companies are suffering due to less profits  .Govt agencies has been made defunct in realty sectors and virtually dying due to apathy of Govt and absence of some policy boosting .There is no regulations in this Industry .This is the observation of this year Noble winner in economy Mr Jean Tiroly of France who says all infrastructure- Natural resource and big Industries with high stake need regulations --otherwise economy would be prone to recession . This path breaking discovery predicted US and European recession in 2007 based on huge infrastructure spending with out any regulations.

 

In the present economic scenario of India NPA of all banks  are increasing to 25 to 30 % -Top 500 Companies in India have aggregate debt is around Rs 2.87 L cr to total lending --82 out of 500 are financially distressed--CDR (Corporate debt restructuring) of  all the banks could increase at present Rs 60000 cr in 2013 to 1 L cr with in next 5 months .World economy from severe economic recession in 2008 is not reviving and European Union has lowered the growth forecast  to just 1.3 % to all the 28 countries block thus restricting and effecting severely Indian export . Today food grain productions in India are very much healthy with 857 million tonne but soon farmers will suffer due to less off take by Agro based Industries . Present Govt want to restrict people's power of MNREGA ( right to employment ) to only few districts in India . as per latest IMF report of Reality Data on 52 countries India has witnessed a sharp fall gradually last 5 years. .Annual percentage in property prices falls 9 % every year. even the same property bubbles the cause of great recession in USA ,Europe are improving at present but India struggling on reality markets . According to ASSOCHAM the Indian Business Chambers --MALLS in India suffering huge recession in terms of more than 70 to 80% unsold space in 300 MALLS in India and virtually created a huge dead money situation of may be more than 10 Lakh crore Rupees .All this attributed to high inflation and high interest rate India is passing at the moment and despite so much deadly picture in realty sectors prices of realty is not falling down and thus attracting more such dead money situation in entire Realty sectors created for a period of 7 years since 2006 on wards.THE SO CALLED WORLD CLASS ECONOMISTS Raghuram Rajan WITH LOTS OF HOPE proved to be a total failure as Governor of RBI  .He is just following Dr Subba Rao's stale and dead policy last 6 years he was running with same age old REPO/CRR rate cut or high .Banks are becoming sick day by day due to rising NPA and due to no exposure of banks in developmental activities .GDP also shrieking to now below 5 % in 2012-13 . I am totally at loss as why these so called world class economist cannot see the tremendous potentiality in 76% populated RURAL INDIA living with so much untapped economic growth .Why still after 66 years Banks are not exposed to Rural India . I bet if Govt really focus on Rural India with more Banks then I am sure India GDP will grow to more than 20 % a year and it will be sustainable as well . We are fed up of listening same story of Global economy -recession -slowdown .I am sure captains of Indian Industries will change their mind set to Rural India exposure if banking sectors grows there .Still I believe there are untapped gold mine in Rural India need to be digged properly with care .Picture is not rosy with this new land bill the new Modi Govt want to pass by arbitrary ordinance route remains in cloud as it may hurt Rural Farmers very badly .Today more than 30000 farmers already committed suicides due to high debt by exposing largely to moneylenders last 10 months .Banks are not coming to rescue the most fundamentals of business is business of feeding people .Almost more than 50000 farmers every year are leaving this feeding business and virtually clogging to cities for need of jobs and never return to farming business due to apathy by bureaucrats-political establishments and the Govt  even they suffer badly in cities due to want of basic needs of health wealth and educations .The day our planners -economists -political parties- Govt give full thrust to Rural India  then will start a real glorifying day for real prosperity of development -real human development  

 

 A great Rural Agro based Industry INCLUSIVE FARMING in a just 10 to 15 acre land can fetch Rs 2 to 6 Lakh a year after 2 years of of installation with 20 to 25 Rural employment .  I bet just one Industry of INCLUSIVE FARMING on AMUL MODEL on 6.4 lakh villages  of India will be great game changer in developing Rural Economy to great extent will generate more than 5 crore direct and more than 15  crore indirect employment  in Rural India and we believe there are plenty of Rural Industries are yet to tap like gas from waste ,solar energy ,Rain water harvesting ,Bio dynamic farming apart from tapping village tourism .If India is  to grow as world class economy then she has to develop 76 % populations in Rural India and there cannot be any compromise on total inclusive human development and one thing our political system must know that India is not US or UK and have responsibility of inclusive human development of still 76 % populations not developed yet even after 66 years of independence  -just snatching farmers land with advise of few crooked business personalities in the name of Industrial development will not solve the problems .We need extremely fastest solution of human by giving basic needs of health wealth and education and with out that no country can grown even so called China Russia totally flopped being people's Govt  .India is an agriculture based economy and instead of crying only for manufacturing and other big industries for giving hoax crying of employment Govt must focus on farmers development and there cannot be any compromise on that and we cannot allow farmers to die so cruelly in the hand of moneylenders and Banking system is the only alternative to save the farmers to save our Annyodata .INC led UPA Govt has already empowered the people with so much power with RTI-RTE-MNREGA -FOOD SECURITY and no new  Govt in future cannot afford to ignore that power of people and India must focus on that to empower people with further power .Remember it power of 1.2 billion people only can take India to glory of world class economy but never few corporates and few so called captain of the Industries who claims to  give employment to people but actually amassing huge unaccounted illegal properties and money for them and their family making some Rs 5700 cr palace for their sadistic satisfaction of showing might of a billionaire and thus tending to influence the political class .World has seen this culture of development of few and suffering of millions last 100 years and India must shun this outdated model of economic development and instead work for human development only as it is now proved that human development only can contribute actual political economical development of a country     

 


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